Coronavirus

[Ynot]

4. Whilst the parties, demonstrations, beach crowding etc haven't (yet) delivered the feared huge spike, (which does surprise me a little) those were mainly outdoor 'things' so maybe had a lower risk factor.

 

I am getting off the point but surely this is just down to probability. Although the photos of "crowds" have been widely put about by the media, in fact it was a relatively small number of people compared to the whole population, so the chance of transmission is low.A lot of the population is still hunkered down and not going out - which seems to be enough to keep the virus under control. As people return to general circulation, that's when it could start to build again.

 

Yeah, I'm not quite sure on this one.

To me, the theory that many thousands of people from different areas of the country, travel to the same relatively small space and crowd a beach somewhere (or a demo, et al) means that the likelihood of some of those being symptomatic is quite high. And the likelihood of close contact with others who may NOT be infected is also high, (though perhaps not as high as you might think, as I ponder) - ipso facto, the risk of multiple cross-fertilising has to be medium at least.

But as we've seen, it's turned out not so.

 

One thing I missed was the point that deaths HAVE been falling (which s great) because a small percentage of seriously affected have responded well to the anti-inflammatory drugs they've been using of late. Many people tend to look at the falling death rate as a lead stat, but it should be the R1 rate that is the important one to watch.

 

 

 

[the kid]

4. Whilst the parties, demonstrations, beach crowding etc haven't (yet) delivered the feared huge spike, (which does surprise me a little) those were mainly outdoor 'things' so maybe had a lower risk factor.

 

I am getting off the point but surely this is just down to probability. Although the photos of "crowds" have been widely put about by the media, in fact it was a relatively small number of people compared to the whole population, so the chance of transmission is low.A lot of the population is still hunkered down and not going out - which seems to be enough to keep the virus under control. As people return to general circulation, that's when it could start to build again.

 

Yeah, I'm not quite sure on this one.

To me, the theory that many thousands of people from different areas of the country, travel to the same relatively small space and crowd a beach somewhere (or a demo, et al) means that the likelihood of some of those being symptomatic is quite high. And the likelihood of close contact with others who may NOT be infected is also high, (though perhaps not as high as you might think, as I ponder) - ipso facto, the risk of multiple cross-fertilising has to be medium at least.

But as we've seen, it's turned out not so.

 

One thing I missed was the point that deaths HAVE been falling (which s great) because a small percentage of seriously affected have responded well to the anti-inflammatory drugs they've been using of late. Many people tend to look at the falling death rate as a lead stat, but it should be the R1 rate that is the important one to watch.

 

 

How I understand it, is that whilst yes many people and "trying"? to keep distance it is outside. The trump event in Tulsa was reportedly a confirmed spike of quite a large number, no masks, no social distance and importantly inside where there are surfaces to touch and lick. I have not read in anything about spikes following any BLM stuff UK or other. It will be interesting now disney US has opened in some locations.

 

 

Now for the Sweden bit - We can do events for 50 people or less, 50 total inc crew, when it was called I saw a friends company do a gig, 2 ops + speaker + 47 guests in 2 rooms and they moved people about and were clever. HOWEVER a theme park, a loose term more like a themed venue, think harry potter in london, near has closed. They have been told they cannot open, even though they can do quite a bit of controls, but they wanted (and arguably need to) to do shows of 50 people at a time, I think they had 2 spaces like a cinema and were proposing staggered in/out but not sure.

Where this goes is that a massive massive shopping center is open, as is everything else here, its 30km2 shopping space and had 3500 people last weekend so 8m per person, excluding shelving etc. But its still packed. we will see in 2 weeks what happens.

[Ynot]

This just in from Coventry based panto production company Imagine, who also send their shows around the UK...

http://www.imaginetheatre.co.uk/behind-the-scenes/2020716-why-postponement-of-some-of-our-2020-panto-season-is-our-only-option?fbclid=IwAR3JZEG0yjVknH-4joqfgrNb1tNVDG4oX3Uj-pNJzH3mw9xbOvH7FdvIekM

Lengthy read, but pretty much echos my own thoughts above.

[kerry davies]

Several catch-up points.

Plexiglass reminds me of both the Noise At Work consultation and the SIA Close Protection proposals. The first saw it suggested that band played in a sound proofed room at low volumes and amps and audience were in the main venue. The second saw the SAS write the core parameters and the PSA have to argue that shooting our clientele when they wanted to touch the star was not quite our bag. It comes of outsiders not really understanding how our business works.

 

If your capacity is cut by 35% then the ticket prices must treble. It really is that simple. Campsites round me are charging double to allow for distancing, cleaning and individual toilet and washing facilities. The distant cousins are not doing their wedding business but the luxury cottages are all out to let at more than double the normal nightly rate at the Cardiff Hilton.And the bookings are flooding in! We must rethink our approach because nothing will be the same. We might wish to offer a highly personalised and bespoke luxury experience at high prices because the mass market is certainly dead for now.

 

The mass events seem to be 99% young people and they are the group that gets the virus without knowing it yet passes it on to those more susceptible. The spike, if it comes, will be mostly secondary infections when they go home to granny's for Sunday lunch.

 

I definitely prefer the Welsh and Scottish, softly softly, approach to that of the numpties across the Dyke of Death. On the other thread they are talking about reopening of mass audiences and sports crowds, while here in Wales Mark Drakeford just told a reporter that it wouldn't be sensible to do what England is doing but "If they demonstrate that it's safe, then of course we will consider that very carefully in Wales." In other words Wales will allow England to dive into the water and if they slam headfirst into a rock we shall wait until the tide turns ... and then still use a depth gauge.

[Ynot]

If your capacity is cut by 35% then the ticket prices must treble. It really is that simple.

That's the problem.

Capacity isn't being reduced BY 35% it's going to have to be reduced to a MAX of 35% IF social distancing drops to 1m. 19% if it stays at 2m.

So I've found no venue or production that can sustain that level of cut in income or that could manage to encourage tickets at SIX times the normal figures...

 

 

[Stuart91]

Capacity isn't being reduced BY 35% it's going to have to be reduced to a MAX of 35% IF social distancing drops to 1m. 19% if it stays at 2m.

 

I wonder if things like standup will come back first on that basis. You've only got one performer to pay, and they should be able to socially distance themselves from crew without too much trouble. Minimal set and simple lighting.

 

Will the atmosphere be there in a room that's 20% full? Possibly not. 35% might be better. Whether the comedians will be happy playing to that remains to be seen.

[sandall]

Will the atmosphere be there in a room that's 20% full? Possibly not. 35% might be better. Whether the comedians will be happy playing to that remains to be seen.

Quite a few of the comedy nights I've done in the past would have been delighted to get a 35% house!

[Ynot]

I wonder if things like standup will come back first on that basis. You've only got one performer to pay, and they should be able to socially distance themselves from crew without too much trouble. Minimal set and simple lighting.

 

Will the atmosphere be there in a room that's 20% full? Possibly not. 35% might be better. Whether the comedians will be happy playing to that remains to be seen.

We've been doing stand-up comedy nights for 2 or 3 years now - about 6 or 7 a year. When we started we had poor houses - maybe 30 or 40. In a 250 seater that's very sparse, especially when those who don't fancy being 'picked on' prefer to go to the back :)

R+The comics hate it if the audience are spread out too much as it can be harder to work the punters.

 

But to cover the costs (before any profit margin) we have to sell at least 80 seats - that is just over 35%, so we'd have to hope for larger bubble-group bookings to get that many in even at 1m spacings. If they were all couples (which tbh can be a lot of them) then we wouldn't get the 80 bums on seats in, so at a loss before we start. The last few have been around the 120 to 130 mark so around half-full which is actually not a bad house.

 

Comedians on the circuit will seldom do a single show on their own. The norm for us is 1 compere and then 3 additional acts. Still doable, but we can't justify opening for small events like that - even short term I don't think. There are still many other barriers to break down - access to toilets is a pain (esp for the ladies) as they'd have to queue in the same short corridor and into the bar area.

 

The venue is very well booked - there were no available weekend dates and not a huge number of week-nights up to the end of July 2020, many of which NEED the full house available to cover their costs and besides, there aren't that many events that are small enough for us to be viable... :(

 

Oh - Almost the last gig we hosted before March 16th was a comedy night and last night (Fri 17th July) would have been the final gig of the season - also a comedy night.

We're officially now into our dark weeks when the annual maintenance and refurb stuff usually happens before we restart the ball in Sept.

 

:( :( :(

 

That said, we're still a volunteer run venue with majority community bookings so the option isn't there for us yet anyway....

Edited July 18, 2020 by Ynot

[Jivemaster]

The challenge will be to convince the paying public that it is safe to go to theatre, those that successfully convince their patrons that it's safe will have people to sell future tickets to. Those venues that have a covid outbreak will not.

[Ynot]

The challenge will be to convince the paying public that it is safe to go to theatre, those that successfully convince their patrons that it's safe will have people to sell future tickets to. Those venues that have a covid outbreak will not.

Spot on.

And the key is a catch 22. If we open too early even with reduced seats we can't sustain the venue.

If we wait until things have settled enough, we are eating into our reserves...

 

Fortunately my space is fortunate that we HAVE a reasonable reserve (though wouldn't turn down extra financial support if we're offered) so we can wait this out a bit longer than most. But it's the pro venues that will be opening first, which we will be watching closely to see how that goes before we are allowed to maybe follow suit.

 

 

 

 

[Junior8]

Kerry is quite right that to open at all capacity will have to be reduced indoors. Fine but in the venue I helped out at this would be 60 seats. Even with this a socially distanced queue waiting to get in would be probably 100 metres long and would stretch out the main doors and along the footpath into the car park. The bar area could not accommodate half this number if they were all individuals socially distancing. The venue couldn't open though because the toilets are down a narrow corridor where it is impossible to implement a one way system. A large estate has just scheduled some outdoor concerts for around four weeks time. Seeing this did make me wonder as usual if the maths have been thought out overall. The operator of these events has put up a Covid procedure which asks all cars to park 2 metres away from the next. This means the space between the cars will be wider than the average vehicle. In the case of my car the space required including the recommended turning space between the rows would be 15sq m for the car and 27sq m for the turning space between the rows. Two cars facing each other will therefore occupy 84 sq m. taking off the spare 27 sq m for the shared space going up the field by my calculations that's about 70 cars an acre or 10 acres for 500 as most fields aren't tidily square. Their normal car parking area within easy walking distance of the concert ground is six acres. The hard area they have is 1.5. They are also asking people to stay in their vehicle until all those in the next one have decamped. I suppose it'll work but as usual they have only thought of the entry procedures too...The chaos invariably comes at the end - in the dark. Sunset is 20.00 on August 20th. Edited July 20, 2020 by Junior8

[Jivemaster]

The challenge will be to convince the paying public that it is safe to go to theatre, those that successfully convince their patrons that it's safe will have people to sell future tickets to. Those venues that have a covid outbreak will not.

 

The other problem for each venue to get right first time is "to open" It's far too easy to stay shut til it's totally safe but by 2021 or 2022 your usual mailing list will be at another venue that did open.

[Ynot]

Kerry is quite right that to open at all capacity will have to be reduced indoors. Fine but in the venue I helped out at this would be 60 seats. Even with this a socially distanced queue waiting to get in would be probably 100 metres long and would stretch out the main doors and along the footpath into the car park. The bar area could not accommodate half this number if they were all individuals socially distancing. The venue couldn't open though because the toilets are down a narrow corridor where it is impossible to implement a one way system.

I am literally just back from a trustees meeting for my space, analysing the hurdles, solutions and issues arising form those solutions. And some of those issues are exactly as yours are! Our max capacity at 1m spacing (if/when it comes down to that level) is around 92 bums on seats. Obviously those in groups should (hopefully) be co-habiting or bubble groups so can queue together. But yes, there is going to be a LONG queue to get in.

 

We are unlikely to open the bar as normal, but looking at customers ordering their drinks WITH the ticket order, or using a web app on our web site to do it on the day (before they arrive). Interval orders probably from the same app. They will pick up drinks (pre-prepared) on the route through the bar and take them into the aud and sit down.

 

Toilets - yep - we have a single bottleneck corridor to the loos - we can JUST about get a perspex partition to allow a 2-way street for the ladies (using the additional trap in the gents) but the guys will have to troop upstairs for the privilege.

 

All this of course depends on guidance that amateur run venues can open at some time, and that the distancing limit is 1m. No way can we open viably with 2m - that's just 40 seats out of 258, 19% cap.

 

Loads more challenges to face, but at least we've sort of solved some of them... For now.

 

 

[GridGirl]

We’re supposed to be producing the Ring Cycle in Brisbane in October. If it goes ahead (which is still a huge IF, obviously), I am very, very doubtful that we’d be allowed to go full capacity. I’m very glad I’m not the one who would have to tell 50-60% of the Wagner-ites that their tickets are being refunded because we can’t seat them. I’ve just noticed that ticket sales are currently suspended though, while “we work with the Queensland Government in regards to the COVID-19 situation and event guidelines.” The other issue is that if we have to socially distance the orchestra, there’s nowhere for them to go. We might get the strings into the pit, but there isn’t anywhere else in the building for the wind, brass, percussion and four harps to go. Then there’s the question of whether we can get the international artists into the country - currently the borders are closed to all but citizens/permanent residents returning. There are some roles that we just don’t have local artists to sing...apparently a decision is being made on the production by the end of this month. We’ll see.

 

The ballet in November/December I think will more likely happen. Their artists are all in the country, albeit in Melbourne which is back in lockdown, but that’s got five weeks to run and they can still go to work (I think they’re back in the studios now).

[Junior8]

Loads more challenges to face, but at least we've sort of solved some of them... For now.

 

I think for my old venue the problem facing the Trustees is how to get out of this in a position to survive as an entity. I have no confidence in any promises of help from the Leader of the Conservative Party and his pals. For the first time we had built up reserves largely through gradually raising ticket prices to the maximum level while still being able to put on stuff that might have less appeal. These reserves just about match the staffing costs for twelve months. We have not taken a penny since March but have refunded a lot of money. If the place can't open in September and begin to take some, any, money if I was a Trustee I would have to really think about declaring everyone redundant - which in truth they would be - and mothballing. I'd do this knowing that their entitlements would just about clear out the bank accounts and that they simply wouldn't find work anywhere else in the arts, maybe ever again. The longer this goes on I can't see any other course for Trustees fulfilling their duties under the law. Like you at 1m it might just break even at 2m it's time to lock up and put the keys through the letterbox. Oh yes and if they want to work to audiences at minimum capacity artists will have to take a huge pay cut - in some cases down to something approximating tp what they are worth!

Edited July 21, 2020 by Junior8