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Guns n Roses Stage Collapse!


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I was amazed just how calm the cameraman sounded! I'd have been bricking it!

I thought that too, theres bits seem like a proper journalist (after the run from the truck it looks like he's interviewing the guys that we're on stage) not a drummer.

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Another one? Surely not. Surely in this day of increased safety precautions and risk assessment the likelyhood of anything like this happening is nearly 0. It does beg the question, why has the number of accidents like this gone through the roof in the last 2 or 3 years?
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Another one? Surely not. Surely in this day of increased safety precautions and risk assessment the likelyhood of anything like this happening is nearly 0. It does beg the question, why has the number of accidents like this gone through the roof in the last 2 or 3 years?

 

Unfortunately a risk assessment is dependent on the quality of the information coming in. If we had perfect weather forecasts you could do a perfect risk assessment and this sort of thing would never happen. I imagine they started building that stage a few days before the storm, weather forecasts for the next 24 hours are frequently inaccurate, forecasts 3 days in advance are just an educated guess. On the other hand you could build every stage to withstand any possible weather conditions but it would cost a fortune.

 

It seems to me you are better off building a stage that will handle 99.9% of possible conditions and then have a decent plan for how to deal with the other 0.1% including evacuations etc.

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Benash, I think you slightly misunderstand risk assessments. You wouldn't base the structure of a stage like that on a 3 day weather forecast ("the forecast said only light breezes and a few showers so we didn't have to make the stage full strength"). You'd base your structural design on a statistical "worst case" scenario. You wouldn't build a stage in Rio to handle tons of snow and freezing rain--but a tropical storm? Yup.

 

In fact, sudden storms and torrential rain like that are not out of the ordinary in Rio so any RA should have taken account of that fact.

 

Bob

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I guess I wasn't particularly clear in my last post.

 

My point is that when you are building something in real life there has to be some point (ie design conditions) where you draw the line and if the weather happens to cross that line, the stage is unsafe and you better run away. When people talk about safety they often talk about the worst case scenario. The thing is, to get a little silly about it, the worst case scenario (that has a historical precedent) is that a meteor hits the earth and obliterates all life... it's happened before, it'll happen again. What we really risk assess to is the worst case scenario that we think is likely to happen*. That stage in Rio would have been built (presumably) to handle a storm of a certain magnitude. Without knowing the specifics of the case it would be reasonable to assume that the storm they had may have been above the design limit for the stage. If that was the case then it's not really surprising that the stage collapsed. Given all that, what they really need is a clear evac plan so that when an unexpectedly large storm comes through everyone gets cleared off site, no one gets hurt and the insurance company deals with the damage.

 

What I was getting at about forecasts is that given you can't build a stage that will handle every condition (or every possible condition, or every condition that there is historical precedent for) you are pretty much dependent on your the weather boffins to tell you if there is a storm on the way that will exceed your design conditions. If they say there is, you don't build the stage, if they say there isn't you go ahead and build it and hope like hell they are right. Perhaps this time they got it wrong.

 

e2add *to some arbitrary likelihood

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