Reduced light output is the best guide to replacing discharge lamps, their 'life' is the number of hours for the light output to reduce by half. However, with the MSD 250/2, life is quoted at 2000 - 3000 hours, so the number of hours that the lamp has run can't be used as an accurate guide.
Luckily, there are plenty of cheap light meters on the market, such as this one -
Digital light meter from CPC - once you have one of these, and a luminaire with a new lamp in it, measure the output at a set distance - e.g. 5 metres, with open white selected. It's then an easy job to keep a record, a reading every 100 hours should be often enough, perhaps as part of your servicing routine. This will also give you a useful way of finding out how much life is left in a luminaire with unknown lamp hours, handy if you buy used equipment, and your records will be a good sales aid if you choose to sell your equipment.
While a lamp with a high number of strikes will potentially fail sooner than one with less strikes for the same total hours, it's the thermal cycle of the lamp that has greatest effect on overall life. Luminaires that have a remote 'lamp off' function that keeps the fans running for 5 minutes after shut-down, thus allowing steady cool-down, will get better lamp life than those that just switch everything off at once. If you can, having a 'shut down' patch in your lighting desk will take best advantage of this.
Finally, the one thing that kills lamps faster than anything else is poor cooling, so regular cleaning of the luminaire's air vents will pay dividends in extended lamp life.